Driving License Renewal Experience - Clifton Branch, Karachi

Preparation
Keep Original CNIC, Original Driving License, 1 Photocopy of CNIC, Change, and that’s it! No need for looking around for (illicit) support or worrying about the right connection. 

Step 1: Token – 5 minutes
Enter the building, cross the security check – no need to stop, and go to Room # 2 directly. Rooms are visibly marked. In the room, go to the fist counter on the left to get the token slip after showing your CINC/Copy. There was a short queue – 3 people ahead of me. Check your CNIC number carefully on the token. My license was yet to expire so I asked if renewing it now was ok, the answer was affirmative. After one month of the expiry, surcharge applies. 

Step 2: Data Entry – 10 minutes depending upon the queue
At the immediate next counter, give your personal details on the screen, when your token number is called or displayed, same as NADRA process. Be vigilant as display screens were not working and they were announcing it by shouting only – Room for Improvement. Give Original Driving License, CNIC Photocopy, and Token to the staff at counter, they will give it all of those back to you along with a small restaurant-slip like printed fee challan including all types of fee, one window.

Step 3: Fee Payment – 5 minutes, no bribes! 
The adjacent counter was occupied by the National Bank staff – where there was a lousy guy, not rude though, who got bothered while talking someone on his mobile phone. Interestingly, there was a sign saying Mobile Phone not allowed within premises! Anyways, pay the amount mentioned on your slip. I paid 1720 (1713 was the exact amount without making fuss for the return, which looked normal) for 5 Years in-time renewal Car+M/Cycle. No commission or rishwat (bribe) asked so far. Fee Schedule here: https://ccptraffickyc.pk/fee.htm 

Step 4: Photo – 5 minutes
Smile at the next Counter for the photo :-) 

Step 5: Medical – 10 to 15 minutes
Now go to the other “new” building for Medical, which is located on far right in the building.  Give your token and payment slip. Staff there will have a typical eyesight with a Doctor sitting who did not interact. In the meantime, other staff will stamp/sign your token or payment slip. 

Step 6: Plastic Cover – 5 minutes
Go to Room # 3 with token, payment slip, Original Driving License, and CNIC Photocopy only to find out that you will need a plastic cover for the Original Driving License, which is available at the Photocopy khokha right beside Room # 3 for Rs. 20. This was the only amount I paid above the official fee. I had a 50 Rupees note, asked for the change, which the photocopier guy obliged normally against my expectation and previous experiences! Before that, at the counter of Room # 3, I insisted to the staff that I already have a plastic case (credit card one) which I could use but he said they need that specific plastic cover available at the photocopy shop since it can be stapled.

Step 7: Final Receipt – 10 minutes
Go to Room # 3 again, not inside though. Give the bunch of 4 items mentioned above at the counter and wait for the person inside to print out the form. Staff at the counter will torn the lower portion of the printed page as receipt.

Step 8: License Delivery – 1 week
Renewed license would be delivered through TCS to the mentioned address as per the new rule, fees (Rs. 38) already included in the challan paid at National Bank counter. At the last counter it is also clarified that it has been done on the direction of the Prime Minister! I couldn’t understand why the same is not delivered then and there. The whole system is now way better than it used to be in the past, and if they deliver the new card right away, it will make it more convenient to citizens.

Timing mentioned above are subject to how many people are there before you in the queue. It was not crowded when I visited – 3 people ahead of me and 3 behind me. Due to significant improvement in the turnaround time, I believe it does not get crowded usually. 

Parking
I parked the car on main Hatim Alvi Road in front of Lyceum, along with other parked cars. No-one came to collect the parking charges. From there it was 200-300 meter walk to the Driving License Branch Building.  

Facts about Big Oil Discovery News in Pakistan

Recently a local newspaper, Dawn, quoted one of the Caretaker Federal Ministers about an imminent elephant find along Iran-Pakistan border.

Possibly a result of confusion in reading technical details, the claim is misplaced at best, warranting a corrigendum form the relevant people.

In short, the news is incorrect: https://www.dawn.com/news/1424804

Fact: currently, there is no drilling activity underway around the mentioned region. However, chances of a find in the future cannot be ruled out.

ExxonMobil, which is named in the news item as explorer:

Fact: the Oil Major did enter into Pakistan's Oil & Gas Exploration landscape very recently as a 25% partner for an upcoming offshore endeavor.

However, the Company and its partners are yet to dig the designated hole. PPL, OGDC, and ENI are the other 3 partners who will try their luck with Exploration Well Kekra-1 to test the high potential Indus G Block, latest by January 2019. The well was planned in the past also but got delayed.

When the Exploratory Well is drilled, only then experts will be in a position to comment on various possibilities and future course of action with some certainty.

In the meantime, we can keep our fingers crossed!

Muzzammil

Useful Links:

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1721191/2-exxonmobil-acquires-25-stake-offshore-drilling-pakistan/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/334062-e-p-companies-plan-offshore-drilling-in-january-2019

http://wiki.aapg.org/Reserves_estimation

Elections 2018: Karachi National Assembly Outlook

Elections 2018: Karachi National Assembly Outlook

by Hafiz Muzzammil
July 24, 2018

Total National Assembly Seats: 21

MQM: 9 (6-9)

PTI: 7 (4-7)

PPP: 4 (3-5)

MMA: 1 (1-2)

Others: 0 (0-2) PSP/PMLN/ANP etc

Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM): 6-9

MQM is strong on 9 National Assembly seats; all located in the Urdu Speaking (Muhajir) areas:

1. NA 239 Korangi I Shah Faisal Colony, etc.: Khawaja Sohail Mansoor

2. NA 240 Korangi II Landhi

3. NA 241 Korangi III

4. NA 245 East IV Jamshed Road, etc.: Farooq Sattar contesting Amir Liaqat

5. NA 251 West IV Orangi Town, etc.

6. NA 253 Central I North Karachi: PSP’s Mustafa Kamal can upset

7. NA 254 Central Azizabad

8. NA 255 Central III Liaqatabad Nazimbad: Khalid Maqbool Siddiqi

9. NA 256 Central IV North Nazimabad: PTI or MMA might snatch this one

MQM can win all 4 NA seats in the District Central, all 3 in the newly carved District Korangi, and one each in Districts East and West. Other than the above 9 constituencies, MQM is hardly in the fight in the rest one dozen Karachi seats and can only come second in NA 236 Malir I and NA 243 East II, leaving very little upside. The party which is used to of grabbing 80-90% of cities constituencies, by hook or crook, will not be happy even with the best case scenario.

Single largest factor behind this big downward change in MQM’s fortunes is the recent countrywide delimitation of constituencies based on last year’s census. Previously, Karachi constituencies were built around Urdu Speaking demographics, reflecting old realities and benefitting MQM. Current ones are reflective of new realities formed built over inland migration waves. Other factors include MQM’s lost militant power and hence reduced influence on the election staff which saved the party from repeating 2002 embarrassment in 2013. In 2002, MQM lost 3 middle class NA seats to MMA (Jamate Islami: Gulshane Iqbal, Kharadar, and Defence) which could easily have increased to 5-6 in 2013 but against PTI.

With very limited upside, MQM faces at least a couple of serious downside challenges: NA 253 might tilt to one of their own Mustafa Kamal while NA 256 might, eventually, slip.

North Nazimabad, NA 256, had long been a challenge for MQM. The locality comprises of Urdu speaking bourgeoisie: well-educated and white color, which got fed up with MQM’s mafia style, sector incharges, and had nothing to gain from the ethnic turf war and municipal jobs. Sensing the gravity of situation, post 2002, the party worked on a sophisticated demographics plan by grabbing amenity plots (playgrounds and parks) which were converted into small sized residential units and were distributed among party workers who lost any of their loved ones in the so-called struggle of Muhajir rights. This effectively makes up for the lost upper middle class votes in the constituency.

NA 245 Jamshed Road is another battleground where Farooq Sattar, a resident of PIB Colony, will put up a fierce survival fight. The constituency is inhabited by Gujarati speaking Memon community, which is considered close to Urdu Speaking Muhajirs but can go along with Sindhi speaking people as well due to language similarities. Since MQM leader belongs to the same community he enjoys an edge over PTI’s Amir Liaqat who is banking on his Barelvi following built on popular TV shows. The newfound love of Barelvi populace with Tahreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) thanks to Maualana Khadim Rizvi would hurt Amir Liaqat’s prospects.

PSP’s vote bank mostly concentrates around localities where MQM enjoys public support. This will result into distributed vote bank ultimately benefitting PTI.  Mustafa Kamal, who is running from NA 253 North Karachi, is the best PSP chance for the National Assembly catch. Dolphin might also get 3-5 provincial assembly seats from here and there, including Hyderabad being Anis Qaimkhani’s hometown.

If Altaf Hussain’s boycott move dents MQM’s vote bank, it will mainly benefit PTI and to some extent PSP; both are perceived as pro-establishment. And if the call results in sabotage, to the extent of poll disruption, it will hurt MQM more. The recent (Sunday July 22, 2018) fire incident occurred at Paposh Colony(Nazimabad) Polling Station, a MQM stronghold, cannot be termed as a mere coincidence. 

https://jang.com.pk/news/524674

MQM might not only find itself at the receiving end on the National Assembly seats from Karachi but could also lose its bargaining charm in Sindh’s provincial assembly, reducing its pie from the traditional 35-40 directly elected seats to 15-20, which includes Hyderabad as well but excludes PSP.

Afaq Khan’s led MQM-Haqiqi, the third MQM faction, shall feel lucky even if they manage a single seat from anywhere. NA 240 Korangi II used to be their den but always voted against the splinter group except for 2002, which was also reoccupied by big brother in the bye-election during the same tenure.

Paksitan Tahrike Insaf (PTI): 4-7

PTI looks poised to win 3 out of 4 seats from the upper middle class, mixed ethnicity, District East and 1 out of 2 from the posh side of District South:

10. NA 242 East I Scheme 33

11. NA 243 East II Gulshane Iqbal: Imran Khan

12. NA 244 East III PECHS

13. NA 247 South II Defence: Dr. Arif Alvi

In addition to these 4 strong constituencies, PTI can snatch 3 out of 5 seats in the closely contested, multiethnic, and now the largest, District West:

14. NA 248 West I Keamri

15. NA 249 West II Baldia Town: Faisal Vadwa against Shahbaz Sharif

16. NA 252 West III Manghopir

There are 8 other National Assembly constituencies where PTI shall end up as runners-up, with a couple of upside surprises making up for the loss in the above predicted wins. Among these shots, NA 237 Malir II comprising of Malir Cantt, NA 245 East IV of Farooq Sattar and Amir Liaqat, and NA 256 Central IV North Nazimabad have the most potential to tilt in favor of Kaptaan. Rest of the long shots are NA 239 Korangi I Shah Faisal Colony,  NA 241 Korangi III, NA 246 South I Lyari, NA 251 West IV Orangi Town, and NA 254 Central II Aziazabad. The best case scenario, coupled with the mood on the street and 2013 actual results, suggests that it is PTI only which can touch double digits from Karachi.

PTI has not only been enjoying support from common man, with no or little political affiliation, but is also successful in putting itself as a viable option for disgruntled political workers of rival outfits, specifically of MQM and PPP. Imran Khan also managed the ethnic and sectarian divide well enough to ensure support from all strata of population; conservatives, liberals, minorities, women, and youth.

Pakistan People Party (PPP): 3-5

Historically, Bhutto’s party had been dependent on Sindhi speaking neighborhoods either around the city center, like Lyari, or around peripheral precincts, like Malir, managing to keep its footprint in Pakistan’s biggest metropolitan with 2-3 National Assembly seats.

2018 Elections have given PPP a great opportunity to regain and increase that dwindling footprint courtesy recent delimitation of constituencies which shifted city’s center of gravity from Urdu Speaking Districts to the multiethnic ones.

Following 4 constituencies, 3 out of 3 in District Malir, and 1 out of 2 in District South, look to add to Zardari’s much needed bargaining arsenal on the national field:

17. NA 236 Malir I

18. NA 237 Malir II: Abdul Hakim Baloch

19. NA 238 Malir III: Aurangzeb Farooqi of the banned outfit irking PPP here

20. NA 246 South I Lyari: Bilawal (Bhutto) Zardari

NA 248 Karachi West I can also go in favor of PPP’s stalwart Qadir Patel along with NA 252 West V Manghopir while the party can only beat Shabaz Sharif from NA 249 Karachi West II Baldia for second place.

PPP is hoping to extend its influence on the provincial bureaucracy beyond interior Sindh to get benefit of city’s changing realities. Outgoing Chief Minister Sindh, Murad Ali Shah, found some time in the last year of the tenure to reach back to various communities, mostly non-Urdu  speaking, which the party claims to represent and tried resolving civic issues particularly in Districts East and South visible in the shape of better roads and waste management services. It was in 1993 when the party showed its best performance in the city collecting 6 out of 13 pieces courtesy MQM’s boycott which is unlikely to recur this time, MQM or no MQM.

With sights on the powers emanating from the 18^th amendment, PPP is also taking Sindh’s Provincial Assembly elections more seriously than all others and has been gearing up to grab more than its share of Karachi this time in the shape of 10-12 MPA seats.

Jamate Islami / Muttahida Majlise Amal (JI / MMA): 1-2

Jamate Islami wishes to repeat its unexpected 3 NA wins from Karachi in Elections 2002 drawing parallels in the form of Muttahida Majlise Amal. JI is favorite at one constituency at least:

21. NA 250 West III Site Area: Naeemur Rehman

Naeemur Rehman, JI Karachi President, shrewdly abandoned his home constituency, from District Central where he lost badly in all previous instances against MQM, for the NA seat and instead chose newly carved next-door constituency in the District West. He expects to cash on party’s recent campaigns against Karachi Electric and NADRA, which catered to locality’s Bihari and Pathan populations both, and strong position of the Provincial Assembly candidates one of whom belonged to JUI-F who returned in 2002.

The party could also give tough time to its opponents in NA 242 East I Scheme 33 where it has pitched Asadullah Bhutto, NA 244 East III PECHS where Zahid Saeed enjoys support in the business community, and NA 247 South II Defence where Muhammad Hussain Mehanti is counting on his social work and affiliation with Gujrati speaking Memon community. Asadullah Bhutto and Muhammad Hussian Mehanti were among those returned in 2002 but built little portfolio when it comes to performance except for piety and cursing the corrupt lot relentlessly.

At NA 245 East IV Jamshed Raod and NA 256 North Naziamabad, JI is well geared to snatch a surprise victory on the back of middle class vote bank, divided votes among its opponents, and MMA miracle.

Interestingly, JI is mostly concentrating on Urdu Speaking or middle class localities while leaving the rest, especially in District West, to either 2^nd tier candidates or to its syndicate partners. Other members of MMA can hardly score NA victory in Karachi but a few of their candidates, 2-3, are well poised for Provincial Assembly seats which can add up to 3-5 including JI’s chances.

Others (PMLN/ANP/ASWJ): 0-2

PMLN’s inherited President Shahbaz Sharif is trying luck from the multiethnic, crime ridden, and almost slum constituency; NA 249 West II Baldia. He is the only candidate PMLN expects to give a close fight on Karachi’s NA landscape. The constituency is also one of the most open ones in the city where the winning margin could be razor thin, peculiar to District West past results.

From NA 244 East III PECHS, inexperienced Miftah Islamil is counting on his business pedigree and the recent stunt at the Federal Government alluring Karachi’s affluent trade community for a voice of their own around the power corridors.

From the development perspective, the under construction mega metro project connecting the working class localities of Surjani Town and New Karachi with the city center, and passing through middle class North Nazimabad, Nazimabad, and North Karachi, is a bold initiative by the PMLN to provide one of the biggest cities in the world with its first mass transport solution. However, it would not bear immediate fruits, mostly since it lies in the unchartered territory and partly because the project is yet to be finished. Once functional, it would help in improving manpower productivity, ultimately benefitting the business class.

Completion of Lyari Expressway, specifically the down section, is another feather in the otherwise PMLN’s empty Karachi cap. The road took a generation to finish and saw a full cycle of civil-military-civil exchange of command, making it difficult for a single party to claim the bounty. Major beneficiary of this turning and twisting bypass are Middle class neighborhoods, mostly inhabited by Urdu Speaking who hardly voted for PMLN once, in 1993, when MQM boycotted.

ANP’s Shahi Syed, who happily enjoyed accidental elevation to a major stakeholder during the shameful blood filled turf war that crippled the city of lights in the recent past. Soon he became an irrelevant party once the city normalized courtesy law enforcer’s high handedness. Now, Shahi Syed can stage a comeback on the political stage from NA 250 West III Site Area. Here, ANP is banking solely on the Pushto speaking communities in the locality where he got famous through TV talk shows angrily fighting for Pushtoon rights usurped by everyone else. Other than that also, the party might sneak into Sindh’s Provincial Assembly from one, or two, of the fringe seats with low limelight.

NA 238 Malir III got an unexpected spine chilling contender in the shape of firebrand Maulana Aurangzeb Farooqi, who belongs to a sectarian outfit and never hesitated in expressing his harsh and violence inducing sentiments against the Shia community which his party blames of spreading hate especially around the month of Muharram taking benefit of Sunni tolerance. In 2013 he contested hard to snatch an MPA seat against MQM and gave real tough time. This time around, he quickly managed to garner support from mainstream political parties positioning himself as the only viable candidate against PPP which otherwise expected to have an easy sail. This surprising competition made PPP to come out of the comfort zone only to the extent of crying foul while complaining that such people and parties should not be allowed in the democratic dispensation at the first place.  

Karachi Election will be Full of Surprises

Anything which can be said with certainty is that this time political game in Karachi is wide open and results will be full of surprises.

Party Wise Table

Party	Favorite	2nd Seed	Dark Horse
MQM	9	2	4
PTI	7	9	4
PPP	4	3	3
MMA	1	3	6
Elections 2018 Karachi National Assembly Outlook by Muzzammil

Constituency Wise Table

NA #	Locality	Top Seed	2nd Seed	Dark Horse
236	Malir I	PPP	MQM	PTI
237	Malir II Cantt	PPP	PTI	MQM
238	Malir III	PPP	ASWJ	PTI
239	Korangi I	MQM	PTI	PPP/TLP
240	Kornagi II	MQM	MQMH	PSP
241	Korangi III	MQM	PTI	MMA
242	East I	PTI	MMA	PPP
243	East II Gulshan	PTI	MQM	MMA/PSP
244	East III PECHS	PTI	MMA	PPP
245	East IV	MQM	PTI	MMA
246	South I Lyari	PPP	PTI
247	South II	PTI	MMA	PPP/MQM
248	West I Keamari	PTI	PPP	MMA
249	West II Baldia	PTI	PPP	PMLN
250	West III Site	MMA	ANP	PTI
251	West IV Orangi	MQM	PTI	PSP/MMA
252	West V	PTI	PPP	MQM
253	Central I	MQM	PSP	PTI
254	Central II	MQM	PTI	MMA
255	Central III	MQM	PTI	PSP
256	Central IV	MQM	PTI	MMA

Global issue: Oil’s well

 

 

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, September 6th, 2015

It started as a drop but soon became a heavy plummet: crude oil prices in the international markets winged an extended downward this summer. From around $60 a barrel in June, the commodity plummeted to below $40 at the New York Mercantile Exchange in August. While doing so, it broke several psychological barriers and kept plunging without any respite for eight consecutive weeks. These low price levels were last witnessed in 2009 and were then considered a consequence of the Global Financial Crisis.

This time around, oil finds itself at the other end of the cause-effect axis as most analysts attributed the current meltdown to the demand and supply dynamics — the market economy — rather than justifying it as an aftershock of a financial or a geo-political event. There is little doubt that the recent fall in oil prices has the potential to cause tectonic shifts in global power and wealth undercurrents — ripples of which have already been observed across the international markets. 

Till a couple of years ago, such low prices were unimaginable. The world was still awed by the popular End of Cheap Oil theory, which posited that since we had already exhausted a major portion of earth’s fossil treasures, diminishing supplies will not be able to cope up with the ever-increasing demand. In July 2008, oil saw its all-time high of $145 a barrel providing credence to the Peak Oil regime. For much of the subsequent period, crude markets hovered around the historically high range of $80-100 a barrel. 

Now, there is an emerging consensus among both investors and analysts that lower oil prices are there to stay. Markets can change directions, but the speed at which bullish shouts in the oil market turned into bearish pleas is nothing short of remarkable. How all that reversed could make one of the most astonishing tales of the century.

The story has been in the making for around a decade. 

The first part of it starts with developments in the United the United States, the world’s largest producer and the largest importer — at the same time — of oil and natural gas clubbed together. In the wake of high commodity prices, more expensive but technologically advanced methods of discovering and extracting natural resources became commercially feasible. 

The most notable of these techniques, and perhaps the most environmentally controversial, is hydraulic fracturing — a method of penetrating into hard layers of rocks spared during conventional drilling. The method, now known as fracking, coupled with the technique of horizontal drilling revolutionised the American mining landscape and resulted in the massive increase of gas production. 

From 1,293 billion cubic feet (bcf) in 2007, gas production from the unconventional shale formations in the United States rose to 11,415 bcf in 2013 showing an astounding growth rate of 44 per cent! 

Consequently, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price collapsed to $2.75 per million btu (mmbtu) in 2012, from $8.86 per mmbtu in 2008. On the global level, it led to a gas glut as the US no more needed the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) which it had been previously importing mainly from Trinidad, Egypt, Qatar, and Yemen. (Remember the strong lobbying for the import of LNG to Pakistan in the recent past!)

After the success of shale gas, the technology was then applied to produce oil — albeit with initial reservation on the chances of success. Following the gas bonanza, oil production in the United States also rose from 5 Million Barrels per Day (mbpd) in 2008 to whopping 8.7 mbpd in 2014. The American dream of energy independence finally came true —almost!

Theoretically, international crude oil prices should have nosedived during the so called “Shale Boom” in the United States; however, they defied the odds and managed to keep calm until 2014. Two major reasons could be cited behind this apparently counterintuitive behaviour. First, the strong expected demand of commodities from the emerging economies, headed by China, which was thought to compensate the future excess supply. The second was the prevailing geo-political tensions in the oil rich Middle East which kept threatening the oil’s supply side hence stabilising prices.

On the other hand, the roaring growth of oil and gas production in the US continued unabatedly alarming other suppliers, most of whom sit together under the auspices of the notorious Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). 

Historically, the onus to balance the over-supplied market by cutting supplies, and production, used to fall onto OPEC’s major contributor, Saudi Arabia. Unlike the past, Saudis clearly signalled their aversion to replay that role and decided to defend their market share — providing the story with the much needed twist. 

Any remaining doubts on the Kingdom’s strategy waned off when, in December 2014, Mr Ali al-Naimi, the otherwise tight-lipped oil minister of the OPEC power house, was quoted in the press taking a frank position: “If I reduce, what happens to my market share? The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, the US shale oil producers will take my share.”

To some, it was a conspiracy hatched by the United States and Saudi Arabia to arm-twist Russia and Iran, their respective oil rich arch-rivals. Whether it was a scheme or not, the timing of the collapse could not help the cause of the latter duo — one of which had to face sanctions due to the Ukrainian adventure while the other was desperate to get rid of the nuclear programme related economic sanctions.

On July 14, 2015 Iran managed to sign the much coveted nuclear deal with world powers — the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany and the European Union — to lift the long imposed trade curbs in lieu of her atomic programme. For oil traders, the repercussion was clear; more supplies are on the way to an already flooded market. 

As they say there are always two sides of the story, so in this case also the tale is not complete without the mention of ‘demand’ side! And the demand side account is incomplete without bringing energy hungry China into the equation. 

No matter how robust had been the supplies, Chinese appetite always looked to gulp whatever was available in the energy markets. Even sluggish demand in the developed world, mainly due to weak European economy, had been offset by the high Chinese growth rate. Shanghai Stock Exchange, country’s premier bourse, skyrocketed from 2,059 points recorded on June 30, 2014 to whopping 5,165 points on June 8, 2015. Gradient of the Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index during this period could easily be confused with that of the “Sky Ladder” — a stunning 1,650 feet display of fireworks in the sky created by the Chinese artist Cai Guo-Qiang.

However, the euphoria in the market was short lived, as the index collapsed to 2,965 points as early as Aug 25, 2015, despite the all-out effort by the government to arrest the decline. The international press dubbed it as the “Great Fall of China”. For the market, it was a clear sign that Chinese demand will no more be an energy black hole and that the only way to find peace with the burgeoning supply is to cut the price. With that, the to-date story of oil price fall ends. 

Along with the oil, questions can also be found in abundance around the oil markets. Have the prices bottomed out? Will Saudi Arabia or any other country cut the production? What is the break-even cost of US shale producers? Is Chinese debacle a result of “Irrational Exuberance”? How volatile will be the prices in the coming days? How far the impact would go? Amid all these questions and uncertainties, the only thing that can be stated with certainty is that the story is not finished yet. Many more chapters are about to unfold, sooner than later, and with an accelerated pace.

For a country like Pakistan, which is a net importer of fossil fuels, and is faced with developmental challenges, this emerging scenario can be turned into a rare opportunity to solve the ongoing energy crisis and to pull out the country from the economic malaise. Infrastructure investment, development of indigenous resources, sustainable energy mix, and equitable pricing are some of the major steps which need to be taken before the window is closed. 

Stems of our current energy fiasco, especially of electric power, are mostly rooted in the high cost of input fuel — a consequence of rising petroleum prices in the good part of the 21st century. In the past, we enjoyed our indigenous — read cheap — resources, such as water and natural gas, lavishly used without pondering much about investing into the future. 

Ultimately, the Dutch Disease gripped the whole nation quietly, as it does. 

In 2012, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, the then federal finance minister, went to the extent of suggesting that there was no crisis of ‘electricity’ in the country but that of ‘cheap electricity’. Successive governments tried to pass-on the ‘fuel cost’ component to consumers through electricity bills, but failed without exception. Conventional budgetary allocation for subsidies was not enough to bridge the deficit between the cost of electricity generation and recoveries from utility customers. 

That gave birth to the notorious circular debt — a sheer misuse of accounting practices and government influence to hide the monetary shortfall in the receivable section of energy sector balance sheets. Low fuel prices provide the policymakers and regulators with the golden opportunity to fix the issue quickly and permanently. 

For long term energy security, and a sustainable fuel mix, development of indigenous resources is imperative. A lot of field work, and talks, has already been carried out. This is about time to develop and bring those unutilised coal, oil and gas, and hydro potential online on the fastest track possible. Execution of big projects take more years than that of one democratic term; however, the window of opportunity might close before the next election deadline, therefore, this is also a test of our political leadership to show the vision and disprove the popular notion that only military governments can deliver when it comes to infrastructure investment.

Published in Dawn, Sunday Magazine, September 6th, 2015