Elections
2018: Karachi National Assembly Outlook
Total
National Assembly Seats: 21
MQM: 9 (6-9)
PTI: 7 (4-7)
PPP: 4 (3-5)
MMA: 1 (1-2)
Others: 0
(0-2) PSP/PMLN/ANP etc
Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM): 6-9
MQM is
strong on 9 National Assembly seats; all located in the Urdu Speaking (Muhajir)
areas:
1. NA 239
Korangi I Shah Faisal Colony, etc.: Khawaja Sohail Mansoor
2. NA 240
Korangi II Landhi
3. NA 241
Korangi III
4. NA 245
East IV Jamshed Road, etc.: Farooq Sattar contesting Amir Liaqat
5. NA 251
West IV Orangi Town, etc.
6. NA 253
Central I North Karachi: PSP’s Mustafa Kamal can
upset
7. NA 254
Central Azizabad
8. NA 255
Central III Liaqatabad Nazimbad: Khalid Maqbool Siddiqi
9. NA 256
Central IV North Nazimabad: PTI or MMA might snatch this one
MQM can win
all 4 NA seats in the District Central, all 3 in the newly carved District
Korangi, and one each in Districts East and West. Other than the above 9
constituencies, MQM is hardly in the fight in the rest one dozen Karachi seats
and can only come second in NA 236 Malir I and NA 243 East II, leaving very
little upside. The party which is used to of grabbing 80-90% of cities
constituencies, by hook or crook, will not be happy even with the best case
scenario.
Single
largest factor behind this big downward change in MQM’s fortunes is the recent
countrywide delimitation of constituencies based on last year’s census. Previously,
Karachi constituencies were built around Urdu Speaking demographics, reflecting
old realities and benefitting MQM. Current ones are reflective of new realities
formed built over inland migration waves. Other factors include MQM’s lost
militant power and hence reduced influence on the election staff which saved
the party from repeating 2002 embarrassment in 2013. In 2002, MQM lost 3 middle
class NA seats to MMA (Jamate Islami: Gulshane Iqbal, Kharadar, and Defence)
which could easily have increased to 5-6 in 2013 but against PTI.
With very
limited upside, MQM faces at least a couple of serious downside challenges: NA
253 might tilt to one of their own Mustafa Kamal while NA 256 might,
eventually, slip.
North
Nazimabad, NA 256, had long been a challenge for MQM. The locality comprises of
Urdu speaking bourgeoisie: well-educated and white color, which got fed up with
MQM’s mafia style, sector incharges, and had nothing to gain from the ethnic turf
war and municipal jobs. Sensing the gravity of situation, post 2002, the party worked on a sophisticated
demographics plan by grabbing amenity plots (playgrounds and parks) which were
converted into small sized residential units and were distributed among party
workers who lost any of their loved ones in the so-called struggle of Muhajir
rights. This effectively makes up for the lost upper middle class votes in the
constituency.
NA 245
Jamshed Road is another battleground where Farooq Sattar, a resident of PIB
Colony, will put up a fierce survival fight. The constituency is inhabited by
Gujarati speaking Memon community, which is considered close to Urdu Speaking
Muhajirs but can go along with Sindhi speaking people as well due to language
similarities. Since MQM leader belongs to the same community he enjoys an edge over
PTI’s Amir Liaqat who is banking on his Barelvi following built on popular TV
shows. The newfound love of Barelvi populace with Tahreek Labbaik Pakistan
(TLP) thanks to Maualana Khadim Rizvi would hurt Amir Liaqat’s prospects.
PSP’s vote
bank mostly concentrates around localities where MQM enjoys public support.
This will result into distributed vote bank ultimately benefitting PTI. Mustafa Kamal, who is running from NA 253
North Karachi, is the best PSP chance for the National Assembly catch. Dolphin
might also get 3-5 provincial assembly seats from here and there, including
Hyderabad being Anis Qaimkhani’s hometown.
If Altaf
Hussain’s boycott move dents MQM’s vote bank, it will mainly benefit PTI and to
some extent PSP; both are perceived as pro-establishment. And if the call
results in sabotage, to the extent of poll disruption, it will hurt MQM more.
The recent (Sunday July 22, 2018) fire incident occurred at Paposh Colony(Nazimabad) Polling Station, a MQM stronghold, cannot be termed as a mere coincidence.
MQM might not
only find itself at the receiving end on the National Assembly seats from
Karachi but could also lose its bargaining charm in Sindh’s provincial assembly,
reducing its pie from the traditional 35-40 directly elected seats to 15-20,
which includes Hyderabad as well but excludes PSP.
Afaq Khan’s
led MQM-Haqiqi, the third MQM faction, shall feel lucky even if they
manage a single seat from anywhere. NA 240 Korangi II used to be their den but
always voted against the splinter group except for 2002, which was also reoccupied
by big brother in the bye-election during the same tenure.
Paksitan Tahrike Insaf (PTI): 4-7
PTI looks poised to win 3 out of 4 seats from the upper middle class, mixed ethnicity,
District East and 1 out of 2 from the posh side of District South:
10. NA 242
East I Scheme 33
11. NA 243 East
II Gulshane Iqbal: Imran Khan
12. NA 244
East III PECHS
13. NA 247
South II Defence: Dr. Arif Alvi
In addition
to these 4 strong constituencies, PTI can snatch 3 out of 5 seats in the
closely contested, multiethnic, and now the largest, District West:
14. NA 248
West I Keamri
15. NA 249
West II Baldia Town: Faisal Vadwa against Shahbaz Sharif
16. NA 252
West III Manghopir
There are 8
other National Assembly constituencies where PTI shall end up as runners-up,
with a couple of upside surprises making up for the loss in the above predicted
wins. Among these shots, NA 237 Malir II comprising of Malir Cantt, NA 245 East
IV of Farooq Sattar and Amir Liaqat, and NA 256 Central IV North Nazimabad have
the most potential to tilt in favor of Kaptaan. Rest of the long shots are NA
239 Korangi I Shah Faisal Colony, NA 241
Korangi III, NA 246 South I Lyari, NA 251 West IV Orangi Town, and NA 254
Central II Aziazabad. The best case scenario, coupled with the mood on the
street and 2013 actual results, suggests that it is PTI only which can touch
double digits from Karachi.
PTI has not
only been enjoying support from common man, with no or little political
affiliation, but is also successful in putting itself as a viable option for
disgruntled political workers of rival outfits, specifically of MQM and PPP.
Imran Khan also managed the ethnic and sectarian divide well enough to ensure support from all strata of population; conservatives, liberals, minorities, women,
and youth.
Pakistan People Party (PPP): 3-5
Historically,
Bhutto’s party had been dependent on Sindhi speaking neighborhoods either
around the city center, like Lyari, or around peripheral precincts, like Malir,
managing to keep its footprint in Pakistan’s biggest metropolitan with 2-3 National Assembly seats.
2018
Elections have given PPP a great opportunity to regain and increase that dwindling
footprint courtesy recent delimitation of constituencies which shifted city’s
center of gravity from Urdu Speaking Districts to the multiethnic ones.
Following 4
constituencies, 3 out of 3 in District Malir, and 1 out of 2 in District South,
look to add to Zardari’s much needed bargaining arsenal on the national field:
17. NA 236
Malir I
18. NA 237
Malir II: Abdul Hakim Baloch
19. NA 238
Malir III: Aurangzeb Farooqi of the banned outfit irking PPP here
20. NA 246
South I Lyari: Bilawal (Bhutto) Zardari
NA 248
Karachi West I can also go in favor of PPP’s stalwart Qadir Patel along with NA
252 West V Manghopir while the party can only beat Shabaz Sharif from NA 249
Karachi West II Baldia for second place.
PPP is hoping to extend its influence on the provincial bureaucracy beyond interior Sindh to get benefit of city’s changing realities. Outgoing Chief Minister Sindh, Murad Ali Shah, found some time in the last year of the tenure to reach back to various communities, mostly non-Urdu speaking, which the party claims to represent and tried resolving civic issues particularly in Districts East and South visible in the shape of better roads and waste management services. It was in 1993 when the party showed its best performance in the city collecting 6 out of 13 pieces courtesy MQM’s boycott which is unlikely to recur this time, MQM or no MQM.
PPP is hoping to extend its influence on the provincial bureaucracy beyond interior Sindh to get benefit of city’s changing realities. Outgoing Chief Minister Sindh, Murad Ali Shah, found some time in the last year of the tenure to reach back to various communities, mostly non-Urdu speaking, which the party claims to represent and tried resolving civic issues particularly in Districts East and South visible in the shape of better roads and waste management services. It was in 1993 when the party showed its best performance in the city collecting 6 out of 13 pieces courtesy MQM’s boycott which is unlikely to recur this time, MQM or no MQM.
With sights
on the powers emanating from the 18th amendment, PPP is also taking Sindh’s
Provincial Assembly elections more seriously than all others and has been
gearing up to grab more than its share of Karachi this time in the shape of
10-12 MPA seats.
Jamate Islami / Muttahida Majlise Amal (JI
/ MMA): 1-2
Jamate
Islami wishes to repeat its unexpected 3 NA wins from Karachi in Elections 2002
drawing parallels in the form of Muttahida Majlise Amal. JI is favorite at one
constituency at least:
21. NA 250
West III Site Area: Naeemur Rehman
Naeemur
Rehman, JI Karachi President, shrewdly abandoned his home constituency, from
District Central where he lost badly in all previous instances against MQM, for
the NA seat and instead chose newly carved next-door constituency in the
District West. He expects to cash on party’s recent campaigns against Karachi
Electric and NADRA, which catered to locality’s Bihari and Pathan populations
both, and strong position of the Provincial Assembly candidates one of whom
belonged to JUI-F who returned in 2002.
The party
could also give tough time to its opponents in NA 242 East I Scheme 33 where it
has pitched Asadullah Bhutto, NA 244 East III PECHS where Zahid Saeed enjoys support
in the business community, and NA 247 South II Defence where Muhammad Hussain
Mehanti is counting on his social work and affiliation with Gujrati speaking Memon
community. Asadullah Bhutto and Muhammad Hussian Mehanti were among those
returned in 2002 but built little portfolio when it comes to performance except
for piety and cursing the corrupt lot relentlessly.
At NA 245 East
IV Jamshed Raod and NA 256 North Naziamabad, JI is well geared to snatch a
surprise victory on the back of middle class vote bank, divided votes among its
opponents, and MMA miracle.
Interestingly,
JI is mostly concentrating on Urdu Speaking or middle class localities while leaving the rest, especially in District West, to either 2nd tier
candidates or to its syndicate partners. Other members of MMA can hardly score
NA victory in Karachi but a few of their candidates, 2-3, are well poised for
Provincial Assembly seats which can add up to 3-5 including JI’s chances.
Others (PMLN/ANP/ASWJ): 0-2
PMLN’s inherited President Shahbaz Sharif is trying luck from the multiethnic, crime ridden, and almost slum constituency; NA 249 West II Baldia. He is the only candidate PMLN expects to give a close fight on Karachi’s NA landscape. The constituency is also one of the most open ones in the city where the winning margin could be razor thin, peculiar to District West past results.
From NA 244 East III PECHS, inexperienced Miftah Islamil is counting on his business pedigree and the recent stunt at the Federal Government alluring Karachi’s affluent trade community for a voice of their own around the power corridors.
From the
development perspective, the under construction mega metro project connecting the
working class localities of Surjani Town and New Karachi with the city center,
and passing through middle class North Nazimabad, Nazimabad, and North Karachi,
is a bold initiative by the PMLN to provide one of the biggest cities in the world with its
first mass transport solution. However, it would not bear immediate fruits,
mostly since it lies in the unchartered territory and partly because the
project is yet to be finished. Once functional, it would help in improving manpower
productivity, ultimately benefitting the business class.
Completion
of Lyari Expressway, specifically the down section, is another feather in the
otherwise PMLN’s empty Karachi cap. The road took a generation to finish and
saw a full cycle of civil-military-civil exchange of command, making it difficult
for a single party to claim the bounty. Major beneficiary of this turning and
twisting bypass are Middle class neighborhoods, mostly inhabited by Urdu
Speaking who hardly voted for PMLN once, in 1993, when MQM boycotted.
ANP’s Shahi
Syed, who happily enjoyed accidental elevation to a major stakeholder during
the shameful blood filled turf war that crippled the city of lights in the
recent past. Soon he became an irrelevant party once the city
normalized courtesy law enforcer’s high handedness. Now, Shahi Syed can stage a comeback on the political stage from NA
250 West III Site Area. Here, ANP is banking solely on the Pushto speaking
communities in the locality where he got famous through TV talk shows angrily
fighting for Pushtoon rights usurped by everyone else. Other than that also,
the party might sneak into Sindh’s Provincial Assembly from one, or two, of the
fringe seats with low limelight.
NA 238 Malir
III got an unexpected spine chilling contender in the shape of firebrand Maulana
Aurangzeb Farooqi, who belongs to a sectarian outfit and never hesitated in
expressing his harsh and violence inducing sentiments against the Shia
community which his party blames of spreading hate especially around the month
of Muharram taking benefit of Sunni tolerance. In 2013 he contested hard to snatch
an MPA seat against MQM and gave real tough time. This time around, he quickly
managed to garner support from mainstream political parties positioning himself
as the only viable candidate against PPP which otherwise expected to have an
easy sail. This surprising competition made PPP to come out of the comfort zone
only to the extent of crying foul while complaining that such people and
parties should not be allowed in the democratic dispensation at the first
place.
Anything which can be said with certainty is that this time political game in Karachi is wide open and results will be full of surprises.
Party Wise Table
Party
|
Favorite
|
2nd Seed
|
Dark Horse
|
MQM
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
PTI
|
7
|
9
|
4
|
PPP
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
MMA
|
1
|
3
|
6
|
Elections 2018 Karachi
National Assembly Outlook by Muzzammil
|
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Constituency Wise Table
NA #
|
Locality
|
Top Seed
|
2nd Seed
|
Dark Horse
|
236
|
Malir I
|
PPP
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
237
|
Malir II Cantt
|
PPP
|
PTI
|
MQM
|
238
|
Malir III
|
PPP
|
ASWJ
|
PTI
|
239
|
Korangi I
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
PPP/TLP
|
240
|
Kornagi II
|
MQM
|
MQMH
|
PSP
|
241
|
Korangi III
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
242
|
East I
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
PPP
|
243
|
East II Gulshan
|
PTI
|
MQM
|
MMA/PSP
|
244
|
East III PECHS
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
PPP
|
245
|
East IV
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
246
|
South I Lyari
|
PPP
|
PTI
|
|
247
|
South II
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
PPP/MQM
|
248
|
West I Keamari
|
PTI
|
PPP
|
MMA
|
249
|
West II Baldia
|
PTI
|
PPP
|
PMLN
|
250
|
West III Site
|
MMA
|
ANP
|
PTI
|
251
|
West IV Orangi
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
PSP/MMA
|
252
|
West V
|
PTI
|
PPP
|
MQM
|
253
|
Central I
|
MQM
|
PSP
|
PTI
|
254
|
Central II
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
255
|
Central III
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
PSP
|
256
|
Central IV
|
MQM
|
PTI
|
MMA
|
