ICC T20 World Cup: Arithmetic of Group 2

Published first at: http://blogs.thenewstribe.com/blog/68037/icc-t20-world-cup-arithmetic-of-group-2/

There are and will be a lot of heavy hearted discussions about what went wrong on Sunday when Pakistan once again could not break the World Cup jinx against India. Amid hot debates, live TV shows, and expert analyses, let’s do some arithmetic on Group 2’s points table which has got as interesting as it could be.

In the Super Eight stage all the teams have played two matches so far with Sri Lanka and Australia leading their respective blocs. In Group 2 Pakistan is placed second due to a very thin run rate difference with India, which currently stands third and would be out of the tournament if fails to improve that in its last group match. South Africa lags all its peers but still has a hope, arithmetically speaking.

Here goes a quick number check on how Pakistan could make its room in the brief knockout stage:

Best Case: We Win They Lose

Although we could not do that ourselves, we would not be less pleased if South Africa could do it on our behalf. All we would have to do is to beat Australia first if it is not too much an ask. Simply put, if Pakistan wins and India loses on Tuesday, Australia and we would qualify for the semis without even considering the last column, i.e. the run rate.

Next Case: Win-Win Situation. Really?

If both Pakistan and India manage to defeat Aussies and Proteas respectively then this would be a win-win situation for arch rivals, but only apparently. Why apparently? Because in this case there will be three contenders from Group 2 for the two Semi Final slots each having six points. So it would be the run rate which will decide the fortune and Aussies have a clear edge here with two heavy wins in their kitty. Once again, the contest will be between India and Pakistan, however, off the cricket pitch.

In case, this is becoming too complex skip the previous paragraph, here is a simpler version.

If both Pakistan and India win on October 2, Pakistan’s margin of victory needs to be equal or wider than that of India to get through to the next level. Existing run rates of both the teams are too close – Pakistan (-ve) 0.426 vs India (-ve) 0.452 – and even a single run can turn the table.

Those three dot balls which Virat Kohli played in the 17^th over against Saeed Ajmal – in the pursuit of a finishing sixer and the attached glory – could play a vital role if this scenario materializes!

Choker’s Case: Game On for Proteas

The biggest beneficiary of Pakistan’s defeat yesterday after Dhoni is De Villers whose team is right back in the tournament although with a thin chance. This chance can only open up further if both Pakistan and Inida lose their next group encounters. Even in this case, Pakistan has a slight chance should they fight till the very end and so does India to the effect that South Africa would be unable to improve their run rate to match that of Pakistan.

So if Pakistan loses against Australia – provided with a very thin margin – Pakistani fans will face a dilemma for the later contest on the same pitch. They would support Proteas but would not want India to give up completely!

By the way this is not the first time when South Africans would decide the fate of other teams rather than their own.

Worst Case: You know it already!

Pakistan loses and India wins; no further elaboration needed, I believe.

Nature’s Case: When it rains

In addition to the opponents, players need to outperform the tropical weather which acted as an unwanted non-state actor more than once in this tournament. Come Duckworth Lewis method in play and all the above calculations would be worthless. If this happens to be a full day of rains Pakistani supporters would be the one to enjoy that fully as their team would proceed to the next level due to the better run rate!

Whichever case realizes, let me state that despite all the criticism on ICC regarding the tournament format, cricket’s apex controller managed to keep it thrilling till the end.